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Campaign 2010: Demolition derby
Michael Alan Hamlin
Did Roxas back out too early?
A Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll conducted January 21-24 just as the C5 debate was approaching its apex made headlines earlier this week because it purportedly showed Senator Manny Villar (Nacionalista) narrowing the presidential preference gap with Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III (Liberal Party) to seven points from 11 in a previous survey conducted December 27-28 last year.
Closing from 11 points to seven points-a four-point shift-at first blush seems significant. However, the results are largely ambiguous. Assuming the margin of error was plus or minus three percent-it was not provided in early news reports and the results of the commissioned survey were not available on the SWS website at deadline-the differential between the two surveys is statistically insignificant.
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Posted
2/3/2010 9:43:23 AM | |
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Campaign 2010: He said, he said, he said
Michael Alan Hamlin
Gilbert Teodoro (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) may be trailing his three most important rivals for the presidency in surveys, but that may not be such a bad thing for his personal brand. The “He said, he said” demonization of front runners Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III (Liberal Party) and Manny Villar (Nacionalista) is the tradeoff for high ratings, and is leaving both candidates battered.
(Former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada (Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino) does better in surveys than Mr. Teodoro, but he is expected to eventually throw his support to another candidate. His approach to campaigning appears to be based on making voters laugh hardest.)
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Posted
1/28/2010 1:42:24 PM | |
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Campaign 2010: Personal brand report card
Michael Alan Hamlin
A common complaint about presidential elections is that they are personality-based to the detriment of substance. This is a strange complaint. Voters are asked to elect leaders, not platforms (although a platform is one of many ways a candidate may be evaluated). This is a universal truth. When a voter is interviewed and says, “Candidate A is the best candidate to lead our country forward,” he or she is exhibiting faith in leadership.
This is why charismatic, visionary leaders generally win elections, so long as the elections are free and transparent. The late Philippine president Corazon C. Aquino may have been a simple housewife as she and many others insisted, but she was also a leader who excited voters. She was the one opposition leader that excited voters, and the only candidate that could successfully unseat her dictatorial predecessor. She galvanized voters who believed her sincerity and goodwill would lead them to a better future.
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Posted
1/26/2010 2:05:59 PM | |
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Boracay redux?
Michael Alan Hamlin
The Russians are here, but will they return?
According to the Philippine Department of Tourism (DOT), international visitors to the Philippines increased 2.7% in the first nine months of the year. Because the Philippines has so few visitors compared to its much more popular neighbors-less than 30% of international tourism to Thailand, for instance-that rate of growth while welcome is hugely disappointing. Unfortunately, one of the reasons the Philippines doesn’t make much headway in growing tourism is that tourists who visit leave disappointed.
I asked a well-traveled friend who spent several days on Boracay -the Philippines’ best-known resort destination internationally-to give me a brief on his experience. First, the good news: 1) PAL Express flies direct to Caticlan in new “State of the Art” Bombardier Dash 8 turboprops; 2) The runway is being repaired and Cebu Pacific will soon resume flights with equally modern and reliable aircraft.
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Posted
1/13/2010 10:10:19 AM | |
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Philippines Campaign 2010: Does Social Media Matter?
Michael Alan Hamlin
Over the holiday, a volunteer group supporting the presidential candidacy of Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III (Liberal Party) announced that their candidate has more Facebook fans and online supporters than other candidates. Although the numbers are constantly growing, at one point Mr. Aquino had about 211,000 supporters. His closest rival in traditional surveys and online, Senator Manuel Villar (Nacionalista Party) had close to 165,000. None of the other candidates came close.
Mr. Aquino enjoys a wide lead over other candidates. In the latest survey conducted by Social Weather Station December 5-10, slightly more than 46% of respondents said they prefer Mr. Aquino as their president. Only 27% of respondents selected Mr. Villar, and 16% said they would vote for former president Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino), who trails miserably on Facebook with substantially less than 4,000 supporters. It’s noteworthy that in the latest poll, Messrs. Villar and Estrada moved up from an earlier survey while Mr. Aquino appeared to plateau.
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Posted
1/7/2010 1:44:01 PM | |
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Kariton, klasrum, klinik and kantin
Michael Alan Hamlin
In 1997, a free tutoring center for street kids set up by community volunteers in Cavite City in the Philippines burned to the ground. While the destruction of the center was a tragic setback for the volunteers, they persevered in their mission to give young children whose families were mired in debilitating poverty a shot at challenging their fate by teaching them how to read and write, form basic hygienic habits, and understand and feel compassion.
The volunteers’ mentor-a young engineer named Hardin Manalaysay referred to as KB or Kuya Bonn-encouraged two of the volunteer leaders to think of innovative ways to continue their work despite the loss and the obstacles it presented. One of the leaders-Efren G. Peñaflorida, Jr.-was a young teacher who had broken free from the dire grasp of impoverishment and the tyranny of juvenile gangs with the support of Mr. Manalaysay. The other-Emanuel Bagual-had a similar story. Barely a teenager, Mr. Bagual grew up rising at 3:00 am to wash jeepneys and scavenge for food and junk he sold to pay for school supplies and other basic necessities. Like Mr. Peñaflorida, Mr. Bagual had been inspired by Mr. Manalaysay.
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Posted
12/30/2009 6:22:17 PM | |
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Tiger brand
Michael Alan Hamlin
Tiger Woods has plenty of company in the personal brand doghouse, and there is reason for Mr. Woods to take heart in that reality. Not because his indiscretions were preceded, but because his brand has a bright future, despite some high-profile defections among his sponsors. Basketball greats Michael Jordon and Kobe Bryant are well-acquainted with scandal, and could give Mr. Woods a compelling prep talk about his professional and financial prospects, if not the odds that his marriage can be salvaged.
Both Messrs. Jordon and Bryant moved past their own public scandals of the loins after a period of penance. Mr. Jordan paid a girlfriend $250,000 in an unsuccessful attempt to keep their affair a secret before splitting for a second and final time with his wife Jasmine Jordan. He reportedly paid Ms. Jordan a $168 million settlement six months after a judge ruled that the former girlfriend, Karla Knafel, wasn’t entitled to the $5 million she alleged Mr. Jordan promised her.
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Posted
12/30/2009 6:14:44 PM | |
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