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Obeying the laws of war
Brett M. Decker
Civilization can't win through barbarism
Time and again, superpowers with huge armies and awesome weapons are defeated by the equivalent of David hoisting a stone at Goliath. Weaker asymmetrical opponents use creativity, flexibility and adaptability to defeat or frustrate more powerful major powers. To compensate for their comparable lack of force size and firepower, asymmetric groups use tactics that are unexpected, hard to counter, and outside the bounds of what is considered lawful or acceptable even in a bloody war. The frustration that results when a superpower is being beaten by a lesser foe typically tempts even decent law-abiding nations to try to win by breaking the rules of civility and decency. “We can win this thing if only we could drop the gloves and operate by the terrorists’ playbook,” the thinking goes.
Dr. Joel Rosenthal, president of the Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs, explained why the answer to defeating asymmetric opponents is not as simple as tit for tat. In his article published in the Summer/Autumn 2004 issue of the Naval War College Review, he states that there is a tenuous relationship between power and restraint. A nation, especially a superpower, has to be prudent in its use of overwhelmingly force to make sure that it maintains the ability to see the distinction between wars of necessity and wars of choice. It is counterproductive and dangerous for maximum force to become instinctive. Or as Dr. Rosenthal writes, “If you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.” Real strength is having power but not having to use it all the time.
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Posted
9/30/2008 7:51:18 AM |
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Bad news day for the Philippines
Michael Alan Hamlin
Perennially competing for last place
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is in the U.S. pitching investors on the attractiveness of the Philippines. But new global rankings are undermining her efforts. Front-page stories in major dailies and business papers today announced that the Philippines has fallen lower in the annual Corruption Perceptions Index, from 2.5 to 2.3 on a 10-point scale with 10 the highest possible score.
The Philippines scored lower than every other country in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. That's not the only list in which the Philippines comes up near last. The IMD World Competitiveness Center also announced that the Philippines was third from last among 55 countries in its labor productivity ranking for 2007. Only Indonesia (54) and India (55) come in lower.
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Posted
9/24/2008 12:01:03 PM |
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Going public?
Michael Alan Hamlin
Maybe not. But there are other opportunities for Philippine startups
On Monday, September 15, Lehman Brothers (You have to wonder how long that link will be live.) announced that it would enter bankruptcy with the intent to liquate its assets rather than seek protection from creditors, having failed to complete merger negotiations with Barclays (which later agreed to buy the Lehman investment unit). Troubled Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America in a $50 billion transaction. Insurance giant AIG said it needed US$40 billion to fund its obligations after credit downgrades, and on Tuesday the U.S. government seized control of the company and extended a US$85 billion taxpayer-funded lifeline.
The day following the AIG takeover was quickly dubbed Black Wednesday as investors rushed to unwind investment positions. According to AMG Data Services (Requires subscription.), money market investors redeemed US$144.5 billion from Monday through Black Wednesday, compared to $7.1 billion a week earlier. With world markets plummeting, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson realized that the global financial system was unraveling, leaving corporations unable to fund their daily operations.
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Posted
9/24/2008 11:33:53 AM |
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An economic show
Michael Alan Hamlin
Please, get serious...
Today, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her economic managers will tell members of the Manila Overseas Press Club and the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines that the administration has undertaken and followed through on key reforms that have enhanced the Philippines’ attractiveness to foreign investors. While the Philippines is an attractive investment alternative for many investors, other observers believe the Arroyo administration comes up short on doing what it can, or should, to achieve the Philippines’ investment potential.
Some sobering investment data shows that the Philippines is struggling mightily to attract investment. According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2008 fell almost 60% to just $813 million from $1.93 million a year earlier. That’s especially alarming because the Philippines was the worst performing country in Asia Pacific for 2007 in terms of attracting FDI.
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Posted
9/17/2008 10:16:12 AM |
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Making the best of a slowdown
Michael Alan Hamlin
Opportunities are there for well-managed firms
Signs are that the U.S. recession is being felt in traditional sectors of the Philippine economy, which are highly dependent on consumer buying fueled by overseas remittances. Although remittances from overseas foreign workers (OFW) reached their highest peak since 1989 in June at $1.5 billion, that is because there are more Filipinos overseas, not because they are individually sending more money home. Year-on-year, remittances are up 17.2% to $8.2 billion, according to the Central Bank.
OFW remittances have been a major driver of the residential real estate industry over the past five years. These remittances and investment in commercial office space by business process outsourcing (BPO) investors have accounted for a sustained real estate boom. The BPO industry has expanded 50% annually according to the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPA/P), from US$1.47 billion in 2004 to $7 billion in 2007.
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Posted
9/12/2008 2:07:35 PM |
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Suffocating the Insurgency
Brett M. Decker
Iraq Progress Is the Result of Flexibility & Minimum Force
The war in Iraq has ceased to be a major campaign issue in the ongoing U.S. presidential campaign. The reason is that the country largely has been pacified by coalition forces and Iraqi security battalions. There now are less than five attacks a day in Baghdad, which is a city of seven million. Nationwide, there are a mere 25 attacks a day now compared to 180 attacks a day 16 months ago, and today’s skirmishes have lessoned in intensity. The tide began to turn when U.S. Army General David H. Petraeus was named commander in Iraq on January 26, 2007. His command focused on instilling flexibility into U.S. operations and bulking up the percentage of Iraqi security forces on street patrols. To communicate the changes in vision, policy, strategy and tactics, a new manual was produced to clarify the commanders’ intent regarding counterinsurgency operations. It wasn’t clear at the time in which direction the conflict would turn.
Two years ago, Ralph Peters unleashed a blistering critique of the new Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual in a New York Post column titled, “Politically Correct War: U.S. military leaders deny reality.” Published on December 15, 2006 and known as FM 3-24, the manual was a response by the Army and Marines to the unconventional tactics being waged against coalition war fighters in Afghanistan and Iraq. Among the complaints made by Mr. Peters are charges that “we really believe that being nice is more important than victory,” that “the doctrine writers ignored today’s reality,” that Washington policymakers have decided it is acceptable to “let our troops die, just don’t hurt anyone’s feelings,” that “the doctrine writers faked it, treating all insurgencies as political,” that FM 3-24 is “morally frivolous and intellectually inert,” that our leaders lack moral courage, and even that, “we’re back to struggling to win hearts and minds that can’t be won.”[1] A name-calling rant of this nature is not helpful to rational assessment of policy. And in many ways, the standards espoused by Mr. Peters are the very ones behind America’s initial pacification failures in Iraq.
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Posted
9/4/2008 5:23:47 AM |
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Why transform?
Michael Alan Hamlin
There is little sense of moving from good to great
Transformation – change – is a popular topic. Politicians cite the need for change as a reason they should be elected. It’s a call that resonates everywhere. U.S. democratic presidential candidate Barak Obama rode a wave of popular support for change to become the first African-American nominated by a major U.S. political party for the highest elected office in the land – and in the world.
In Malaysia, former Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim last week won reelection to Parliament after leading a diverse coalition to a stunning electoral triumph in national elections in March. Anwar was sacked by his boss, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in 1998 for seeking to bring about change in the form of greater transparency and accountability in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis that began in 1997. Now, he’s back with the same message.
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Posted
9/3/2008 12:05:38 PM |
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